The Friday Letter · October 2, 2026
Updated the next week. Three figures here were revised in the Oct. 9 letter: the best week to book Thanksgiving is the week of Oct. 19 (not “now to mid-October”); Hopper’s newer fare increases are 31% for Thanksgiving and 23% for Christmas; and the EIA’s $3.95 fourth-quarter gas forecast was replaced by a newer outlook.
Thanksgiving is 55 days out. This week I’m watching the airport calendar, the gas pump, and the dates that decide what you pay.
On the road
- $4.41 and $6.40. The U.S. average was down from $4.48 a week earlier; California was up from $5.68 a month ago and $4.64 a year ago. California drivers pay nearly $2 more per gallon than the national average.
- A record for the season. September averaged $4.33, 50 cents above the old September record.
- Most trips are by car. AAA counted nearly 82 million Thanksgiving travelers last year, about 90% by car, and hadn’t released a 2026 forecast yet. Leave before noon Tuesday, Nov. 24 or before 11 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 25.
In the sky
- The Sunday after is the day to dodge. Last year TSA screened 3.13 million people that Sunday, about double Thanksgiving Day’s 1.56 million.
- Winter break is bigger still. TSA screened nearly 45 million travelers over 17 days (Dec. 19-Jan. 4) last year.
- Cheaper by shifting days. Tuesday departures can run 30-40% cheaper than Wednesday, and a Monday return can save $150-200 over Sunday.
This week’s checklist
- Price Thanksgiving flights today and set fare alerts.
- Pick your days: Thursday, Nov. 26 is the quietest, Sunday, Nov. 29 the busiest.
- Driving? Budget gas at today’s price plus a cushion, and leave before noon.
- Book Christmas flights by Oct. 31, with refundable hotel and car options.
One piece of advice
Move the date before you move the destination. A new travel day beats most coupons.
Fares and prices change daily; figures come from the sources below and may have moved since publication.
Sources
- AAA, national average after a record September: gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-dips-following-record-setting-september/
- Mercury News, California gas prices: mercurynews.com/2026/10/01/california-gas-prices-record-high/
- The Points Guy, when to book holiday flights: thepointsguy.com/airline/best-time-to-book-a-flight/
- Trip Traveling Guide, when to book Christmas flights: triptravelingguide.com/when-to-book-christmas-flights-2026/
- TheStreet, oil and gasoline prices: thestreet.com/economy/soaring-oil-gasoline-prices-may-dampen-holiday-cheer
- theSlickList, busiest Thanksgiving travel days: theslicklist.com/thanksgiving-travel-busiest-days-2026/
- withAutopilot, busiest Thanksgiving travel days: withautopilot.com/blog/busiest-thanksgiving-travel-days
- Trip Traveling Guide (TSA data), best day to fly for Thanksgiving: triptravelingguide.com/best-day-to-fly-thanksgiving/
- AirAdvisor, TSA checkpoint numbers: airadvisor.com/en/statistics/tsa-checkpoint-travel-numbers
- FlightKitten, Thanksgiving 2026 flights: flightkitten.com/blog/thanksgiving-2026-cheap-flights
- withAutopilot, when to book Christmas flights: withautopilot.com/blog/when-to-book-christmas-flights
- Fox Baltimore, AAA Thanksgiving travel: foxbaltimore.com/news/local/aaa-thanksgiving-travel-to-record-high-82-million-americans-traveling
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