The Friday Letter · October 16, 2026
If you’re flying for Thanksgiving, next week is the week to buy. KAYAK’s data says domestic fares bottom out about five weeks before the holiday, which this year is the week of Oct. 19. Hopper says to book before Halloween at the latest.
What it costs this year
- Thanksgiving: $402 for the average domestic round trip, up 31% from last year (Hopper).
- Christmas: $452, up 23% (Hopper).
- Why: jet fuel more than doubled this year, from about $99 a barrel in February to a $209 peak in April. It was still $195 in mid-September (IATA, via CBS News).
Pick the day, and the fare follows
- Leave Monday, Nov. 23 or on Thanksgiving Day. Those average $370 and $371, about $50 less than Wednesday (Hopper). Friday, Nov. 20 is the priciest day to leave (KAYAK).
- Come home Monday or Tuesday, not Sunday, Nov. 29. Sunday returns average $604, and skipping Sunday can save as much as $250 a ticket (Hopper).
- Price two one-ways. Two one-way tickets can beat a round trip by up to 29% on domestic routes (KAYAK).
Christmas
Watch fares now through mid-November, when Google’s data shows the best deals. If you can, avoid leaving Dec. 18-20 and coming home Sunday, Dec. 27 (Hopper).
On the road
California gas is $6.26, down 10 cents in a week and 18 cents under the June 2022 record (AAA, Oct. 14). The U.S. average is $4.33, and it has now been above $4 on 158 days this year, the most ever (GasBuddy, via ABC News). Driving for Thanksgiving? Budget about $6.25 a gallon in California.
The tropics
Quiet for now. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and the Hurricane Center expects none over the next seven days. The season runs through Nov. 30, so keep refundable options if you’re flying to Florida or the Gulf.
One piece of advice
Set the fare alert today. Buy next week.
New from me: Go Well is ready for pre-order. Book Two is my summer field guide, built around fifteen days in Paris, the French Riviera, Barcelona, and Mallorca, with itineraries for Japan, Mexico, and the Caribbean. The Kindle edition is $4.99 on pre-order and comes out Nov. 30: amazon.com/dp/B0HMYBRHWL. Pre-order and I’ll send you a free printable Summer Trip Planner: leah.travel/gowell.
Leah
Fares and hotel data as of mid-October 2026, gas as of Oct. 14, tropics as of Oct. 15. All of it may have moved. Fares are averages and examples, not quotes.
Sources
- Hopper, 2026 Holiday Travel Index: media.hopper.com/research/2026-holiday-travel-index
- KAYAK, holiday flight savings: kayak.com/news/holiday-flight-savings/
- Google, 2026 holiday travel trends: blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/search/holiday-travel-trends-2026/
- AAA, California gas prices (Oct. 14): gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA
- CBS News, holiday airfares and jet fuel (IATA figures): cbsnews.com/news/holiday-airfares-10-year-high-jet-fuel-costs/
- ABC News, record days above $4 (GasBuddy): abcnews.com/Business/gas-prices-set-record-highest-number-days-4/story?id=137253203
- National Hurricane Center: nhc.noaa.gov/
- Naples Daily News, seven-day tropical outlook: naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2026/10/15/florida-weekend-forecast-cold-front-tropics-update/92253626007/
- LAUSD 2026-27 calendar: caschoolcalendar.com/los-angeles-unified/2026-2027/
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